We’re in the midst of a bit of a down period for theaters. “Venon: The Last Dance” has ruled the past few weekends, with smaller offerings like “Heretic” and “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” doing what they can to fill the void. Dwayne Johnson’s “Red One” is also coming to get the Christmas season box office started, even if it won’t light the charts on fire. But this is truly a calm before the storm moment if ever there were such a thing, as a trio of big movies are just around the corner to help turn things around. However, the biggest of the bunch may not be Disney’s big animated sequel “Moana 2” or Ridley Scott’s historical epic “Gladiator II.” Rather, “Wicked” is positioned to become not just one of the biggest movies of the winter season, but also maybe one of the biggest movies of 2024 overall.
Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” was previously eyeing an opening weekend of $80 million or more domestically. The musical, which hails from “Crazy Rich Asians” director Jon M. Chu, will be going up directly against Scott’s long-awaited “Gladiator” sequel, which is looking to open in the $60 million range, give or take. So yes, let the Barbenheimer comparisons commence. To that end, those early tracking numbers for Chu’s adaptation of this prequel to “The Wizard of Oz” may have been conservative. The folks at Box Office Theory currently have the film taking in anywhere between $101 and $150 million in its debut.
That would be a stellar opening for the film on either the higher or lower end, even if we take into account its reported $145 million production budget. This is to say nothing of the potential for this movie to perform overseas either. In this case, “Wicked” has a great deal of upside potential outside of North America, meaning a $100 million domestic opening could just be the tip of the iceberg. In short, we could be looking at a runaway success here, especially if word-of-mouth is good — and all early indications suggest it will be.
Can Wicked become the Wonka of 2024?
“Wicked” tells the untold story of the witches of Oz and is adapted from the wildly popular Broadway musical of the same name. The stacked ensemble cast is led by Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”) and Ariana Grande (“Don’t Look Up”), but also includes the likes of Jeff Goldblum (“Thor: Ragnarok”), Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Jonathan Bailey (“Bridgerton”), and Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”), among others.
Musicals are a bit of a hit/miss prospect over the last handful of years in Hollywood. Something like “La La Land” can go on to become a breakthrough hit as well as an Oscar-winning critical darling. Yet, stuff like “Cyrano” and “The Color Purple” were disappointments, despite getting off to a strong start. (The less said about “Cats,” the better.) In this case, “Wicked” is a well-known musical and one that people respond well to, on top of being connected to one of the most beloved movies of all time. So, it’s not going to be a hindrance, it seems.
“Wonka” was a bright spot in the musical genre last year, with the film taking in $629 million worldwide. Mind you, that was with a mere $39 million domestic opening. The difference is that there was virtually no competition as the Hollywood strikes kneecapped the release calendar heading into 2024. “Wicked” is not only going up directly against “Gladiator II,” but also Disney’s “Moana 2” arrives before Thanksgiving, and it’s eyeing a five-day start of $100 million or more. Disney was smart to turn the would-be “Moana” Disney+ series into a movie instead, to be certain.
So, on weekend two, there is going to be a lot of competition. That said, there are no truly heavy-hitters arriving in theaters again until “Kraven the Hunter” and “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” on December 13, and even those may have somewhat muted debuts. It’s not until December 20 when “Mufasa: The Lion King” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” debut that another surefire juggernaut is upon us. Given that the initial response to “Wicked” has been overwhelmingly positive, the needle continues to point up. Universal probably feels pretty smart for splitting this adaptation into two movies right about now.
“Wicked” opens in theaters on November 22, 2024.
