The Reds are telling teams they plan to trade from their bullpen, report C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. That is not yet a signal about their deadline direction, though. According to the report, Cincinnati anticipates having a bullpen surplus as they expect Emilio Pagan and Ian Gibaut to return from the injured list next month.
Cincinnati has somewhat quietly had one of the better bullpens in the league. Reds relievers rank seventh with a 3.52 earned run average and are eighth with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate. The relief group had been a recurring problem before turning into one of the team’s strengths this year. Swingman Nick Martinez has thrived when working from the bullpen. Fernando Cruz has developed into one of the league’s better strikeout arms, while underrated lefty Sam Moll has continued to excel after coming over from the A’s at last year’s deadline.
The Reds don’t have a ton of maneuverability with their relief group. Cruz and Moll have locked down two spots with their performance. Closer Alexis Diaz has been inconsistent, but Cincinnati isn’t going to send him down. Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims all have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment. Cincinnati can’t option Tony Santillan back to the minors after selecting his contract two weeks ago.
That leaves one bullpen spot with a five-man rotation. Martinez is currently working from the starting five but could slide back to the ’pen once Carson Spiers returns from the injured list. That’d essentially complete the bullpen without having any obvious candidates to bounce between Great American Ball Park and Triple-A Louisville.
If they needed a fresh arm at that point, the Reds could designate someone for assignment. While Farmer has a 2.80 ERA over 45 innings, his strikeout and walk profile is pedestrian. Santillan had spent virtually the entire season in Triple-A, but The Athletic writes that the Reds view him as a key piece and would not want to put him back on waivers. Cincinnati could get Gibaut, Pagan and lefty Brent Suter back from injury later in the season.
While they’ll likely deal with other injuries along the way, the Reds obviously won’t be able to make any trades after next Tuesday. It seems they’re preemptively trying to get something in return for at least one or two of their relievers rather than lose players via waivers in August. The most obvious candidates for such a move are their impending free agents: Sims, Farmer and Wilson.
None of that trio would bring back a significant return. Sims, who is playing on a $2.85M arbitration salary, has the highest ceiling of that group. He misses bats and has worked in a high-leverage capacity for the last few seasons, but he issues too many walks to be an in-demand trade chip. Sims is handing out free passes at a 13 percent clip over 33 frames this year after walking more than 15 percent of batters faced last season.
Wilson missed virtually all of 2022-23 because of Tommy John surgery and a lat injury. He returned this year with his typical velocity and has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a 5.2 percent walk rate. A .365 average on balls in play has led to an unimpressive 4.85 ERA, but the 36-year-old is a fine option for teams seeking another left-hander in middle relief. Wilson is making a $1.5M base salary.
Martinez is making $14M this year and has a $12M player option for next season. He’s pitching well, turning in a 3.88 ERA with excellent control over 72 frames. The fairly lofty salary and 2025 player option could lead teams to look elsewhere, though. It’s also not clear if the Reds want to deal Martinez, whose versatility they could value if they still anticipate making a playoff push.
General manager Nick Krall told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday that the front office had not decided on their overall deadline outlook. They’re five games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, yet they’re within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a wide-open National League. Cincinnati’s game against the Braves tonight was rained out. They’ll make it up with a doubleheader on Wednesday. They play a weekend set in Tampa Bay and one game against the Cubs before the deadline.
