Japan’s Leadership Contenders and Their Key Policy Positions

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(Bloomberg) — Japan is set to get a new leader after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week said he won’t run in an election for the presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September. The president of the LDP is virtually assured of becoming prime minister because of the party’s dominance in parliament.

Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa told reporters Monday she’s making preparations to run in the race, the first to publicly declare their intentions. It remains to be seen if she can garner enough support from members to meet the threshold to qualify. More candidates are likely to make their intentions known in coming days.

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Here’s a look at some of the contenders to replace Kishida.

Yoko Kamikawa

Foreign Minister Kamikawa, 71, is a Harvard graduate who ran her own consulting firm before going into politics. If chosen, she would become Japan’s first female premier. She is known for her efforts to promote women candidates, which is an uphill battle given that only about 12% of LDP lawmakers are female. Kamikawa has also come under fire from activists for signing off on as many as sixteen executions, including six members of the Aum Shinrikyo doomsday cult, while serving as the justice minister. Kamikawa is an English speaker.

Key Policies:

• Monetary: No clear stance has been conveyed yet. She is likely to back intiatives Kishida supported during his nearly three years in office to end the country’s deflationary malaise through raising wages and investments
• Fiscal: She supported active fiscal spending ahead of the last LDP election in 2021 and has since cautioned on the need for fiscal discipline
• Foreign: Has backed trilateral security cooperation among Japan, South Korea and the US and has pressed to advance human rights globally

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Other Potential Candidates

Takayuki Kobayashi

At 49, Kobayashi is considered part of the younger generation of potential leaders. He is a bit of a long shot to take over in 2024 but by running now he is letting LDP members and voters know he has his eyes set on eventually becoming premier.

The former minister for economic security was a backer of deregulation when he was in the cabinet. He also said Japan must seek a balance between allowing companies and research institutions to work together as needed across borders, while mitigating any side-effects in terms of national security.

Shigeru Ishiba

A former defense minister who has made several unsuccessful runs for the leadership role, Ishiba, 67, regularly tops the list of politicians voters would like to see as the next premier. In recent weeks, Ishiba has expressed support for the Bank of Japan’s normalization of monetary policy. On his website he advocates policies including reinvigorating domestic demand to spur growth, rather than relying on foreign trade.  

Taro Kono

An outspoken maverick and fluent English speaker who has long been popular with the public and the LDP at large, Kono lost to Kishida in the last party presidential election due to a lack of backing from his parliamentary peers. Yet the fact he is seen as an outsider could prompt the party to turn to him to refurbish its image, which was tarnished by a political fund-raising scandal. Currently minister for digital transformation, Kono has a wealth of cabinet experience, having served as foreign minister and defense minister. Kono, 61, has softened his opposition to nuclear power in recent years. He’s expressed concern about Beijing’s rise and has said Japan should join the “Five Eyes” intelligence grouping comprised of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US. In an interview with Bloomberg TV last month, Kono urged the BOJ to lift interest rates to support the yen.

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Toshimitsu Motegi

A party heavyweight who recently said the Bank of Japan should more clearly show its intention to normalize monetary policy, Motegi is currently the secretary-general of the LDP and former foreign minister. He’s also a Harvard graduate and has a tough guy image within the LDP. Political analysts say Motegi, 68, might be able to replicate the personal relationship formed by late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with Donald Trump if Trump wins the US presidential election in November. 

Shinjiro Koizumi

The son of former premier Junichiro, Shinjiro Koizumi attracted attention in September for surfing off Fukushima in a bid to soothe concerns over safety following the release of treated waste water from the wrecked nuclear plant nearby. A 43-year-old former environment minister and proponent of renewable energy who attacked government support for coal generation, he made headlines for marrying a well-known TV newscaster and for becoming the first serving cabinet minister to take paternity leave. He has largely kept a low profile since telling a 2019 news conference he wanted to make the fight against climate change “sexy” — a remark seen by many in Japan as a gaffe. In a sign he may be willing to take on his country’s vested interests, Koizumi set up a cross-party group in November to advocate for the introduction of ride-sharing apps to help resolve the shortage of taxi drivers. 

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Sanae Takaichi

A former heavy metal drummer turned hard-line conservative, Takaichi has cited the late UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration. Though currently serving as minister for economic security, she set up her own study group in November, which raised eyebrows because it’s seen as a means of gathering support for a leadership challenge. Selecting Takaichi, a frequent visitor to Yasukuni Shrine, which is regarded across the region as a symbol of Japan’s past militarism, would endanger the country’s recent rapprochement with South Korea and could further sour ties with China. She has advocated more reliance on nuclear power and expressed concerns about environmental damage caused by solar panels. Takaichi, 63, was an admirer of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and in her 2021 run for the leadership expressed support for his ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

Katsunobu Kato

The former health minister and chief cabinet secretary is a dark horse but also the type of person who could emerge as a compromise candidate. The seven-term lawmaker helped guide Japan through the Covid-19 pandemic, when the country fared better than most of the other Group of Seven members. Kato, has not ruffled a lot of feathers in the ruling party, which could work in his favor, while playing key roles under the last three premiers. The 68-year-old worked at the Ministry of Finance before entering politics.

—With assistance from Isabel Reynolds.

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