India and China are the world’s top two most populous countries; both nations have large landmasses, ancient civilisations, nuclear capabilities, powerful armies, and strong geopolitical significance. However, similarities end here; while China is the second largest economy, India is still an emerging economic power. In the 1980s, there was not much difference between the sizes of economies of the two countries; in fact, in the 1980s, India had a higher per capita income than China. However, in 2024, China is way ahead in terms of GDP size, per capita income, and share in global exports.
GDP at current prices: Data available from the IMF shows that for 2024, the Chinese economy is valued at $18.53 trillion, which is nearly five times bigger than the size of India’s GDP at current prices at $3.93 trillion. Since 1980, China’s GDP has surged nearly 61 times from $303 billion in 1980 to $18.53 trillion in 2024. While India’s GDP has posted a jump of over 21 times from $186 billion in 1980.
In the last 10 years under the BJP-led NDA government, the Indian economy has increased 93% from $2.04 trillion in 2014 to $3.93 trillion. On the other hand, the Chinese economy rose 76% in this duration from $10.5 trillion in 2014.
While under the UPA government from 2004 to 2014, India’s GDP surged 188% from $709 billion to $2039 billion; in comparison, Chinese GDP grew 440% in that period from $1.95 trillion in 2004 to $10.5 trillion in 2014.
GDP per capita at current prices: At $25,015, the per capita GDP of China is nearly 2.5 times more than India’s per capita GDP of $10,123 in 2024.
However, in 1980, India had a per capita income of $582, which was nearly 2 times the Chinese per capita GDP of $307. Since 1980, China’s per capita income has surged nearly 82 times. While India’s per capita income increased over 17 times.
In the last 10 years under the Modi government, India’s per capita income has increased 95% from $5,187 in 2014 to $10,123. On the other hand, Chinese per capita income rose 100% in this duration from $12,496 in 2014.
While under Manmohan Singh’s government from 2004 to 2014, India’s per capita income gained 93% from $2,681 in 2004 to $5187 in 2014; in comparison, Chinese GDP grew 185% in that period.
General government gross debt (per cent of GDP): In 2024, gross debt on the Indian government as a per cent of GDP stands at 82.5%, while China has 88.6% government debt. In 1995, India had 71% debt, while China had 21.6% debt. Under the UPA government from 2004 to 2014, India’s government debt has reduced from 84.9% to 67.1%. While under the BJP government, India’s debt has surged 82.5% in 2024 from 67.1% in 2014.
Exports: World Bank data showed that China is the world’s biggest exporter, with the value of goods and services exported in 2023 standing at $3.5 trillion. It has nearly 14% share in global exports in 2023, as per a McKinsey report. On the other hand, India is the tenth biggest exporter, with exports valued at $0.78 trillion. Chinese exports are nearly five times higher than India.
Now most experts suggest that India can also emerge as a major global power and one of the largest economies if we keep the growth momentum while focussing on infrastructure development and domestic manufacturing, besides maintaining fiscal discipline.
