Fact or Fiction: Florida State’s loss will impact its recruiting ceiling
Rivals national recruiting analyst John Garcia Jr. is joined by national recruiting analyst Sam Spiegelman, Marcus Benjamin of CanesCounty.com and Jason Higdon of 1stAndTenFlorida.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
1. Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech will impact its recruiting ceiling for the 2025 class.
Spiegelman: FICTION. Every year we see a top-25 team fall in the opener, only to correct the course later on during the season. That is certainly the case this year with Mike Norvell and the Seminoles, who have a ton of pieces with which to work. The staff already has a stellar class on hand and we know that recruits do not make decisions based off one game – no matter how much anticipation and excitement there was leading into it. If the opening week is an indicator for the rest of the year, then my stance may change. Right now I still think Norvell and Florida State are in line to keep recruiting at the high clip we’re used to.
Garcia: FACT. Perception has been one of Florida State’s best weapons on the recruiting trail, especially relative to in-state rivals Florida and Miami. On the field, at least, the Seminoles were a notch or two above the others within state lines coming off of a banner 2023 season. Now this Georgia Tech loss pairs with the bowl embarrassment to build into the fabric of that key work – perception – that carries on the recruiting trail.
The way in which the Seminoles fell could become its own concern. They scored seven points in the second half, blew a lead and trotted out an offense that could not muster 300 yards against what most would consider an inferior opponent from a talent perspective.
With eyeballs all over the style between rivals as the season gets going, it would surprise if it didn’t play a part in how seniors view Florida State’s product.
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2. The Miami-Florida game is more important for the Hurricanes than the Gators.
Benjamin: FACT. Any season opener is significant for any team. Starting the season off on the right foot can determine the outcome for an entire season, and no game perhaps looms larger as Miami vs. Florida to open the 2024 season. The teams desperately need a win, as both ended the season with thuds: Miami lost to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl, and Florida lost to its rival, Florida State.
For Florida, the game is huge because a loss would end a 33-0 home-opener win streak and set Billy Napier‘s hot seat ablaze. However, the unranked Gators are expected to make little noise in a crowded SEC. But for Miami, it means a bit more. The hype train for Miami is as large as two locomotives, and according to most sportsbooks, the expectation is that the Hurricanes will win nine games. We’ve seen this program wither after a big loss, and many fans might even call the season a failure if the Canes win eight games, making this first game critical to the program’s trajectory.
Miami has the talent to win every game on its schedule, but if it loses game one to the rival Gators, many will feel like Miami is the same as the Hurricanes of recent years, and is far from back.
Garcia: FACT. I’d point to Florida’s tilt with UCF, a few weeks down the road, as more of a must-win game for Billy Napier and company than the opener against a Miami team that all of a sudden looks poised to make a run in the ACC.
For The U, the perception is that there has been talent but not necessarily the entire picture, so the opportunity to go on the road in the SEC against a rival presents as a perception changer all in one shot. Of course there will be scores of top recruits in attendance and with the way fellow in-state rivals Florida State opened the season, the door for claiming the top spot within the Sunshine State has been kicked wide open.
This game feels like it will be the table-setter for all things Miami this fall, where a win sets the program toward its best look under Mario Cristobal and a loss makes many wonder if elite recruiting doesn’t matter if the on-field results stay the same.
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3. The Miami-Florida game is more critical for the Gators than the Hurricanes.
Higdon: FICTION. If you ask either the fan base, staff or players, we all know the answer to this question. Each side will tell you the game is more significant for their team. Miami is on the road and a 2.5- to 3-point favorite, depending on where you look. The projected over/under win total for the Hurricanes is 9.5 games.
Florida is at home playing in the Swamp and a 2.5- to 3-point underdog, depending on where you look. The Gators’ projected over/under win total is from 4.5 to 5.5 games.
The experts believe Miami is a pretty good football team, but needs more faith in the Gators in 2024. The Hurricanes are expected to win by Las Vegas. Miami is also pre-season No. 19, while the Gators are outside the top 25 heading into the weekend.
If one team is expected to win, the game is more significant for that side, so I am going with fiction. Depending on your side, this game means more; there is no denying that simple truth.
Garcia: FICTION. I guess we kind of gave it away earlier, but Florida has some flexibility in the win-loss column as far as the Napier hot seat goes. That schedule is arguably the toughest in the country, so an early trip won’t sound the alarms in Gainesville, though a stumble against UCF a few weeks later absolutely will. Florida is going to rely on young talent and may be the inferior team on paper, too, which again would create some empathy relative to program perception or said hot seat. It could also allow for more risk to be taken by Napier and company in play-calling, scheming and more. Either way, the impact of this game will be felt throughout the Sunshine State and beyond.
